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Points & Prime

Black Friday

Price tracking and rewards, in the right order

Rewards are the last five percent of the decision. The price is the first ninety-five, and Amazon's own labels do not settle it.

A printed chart on a wooden table beside colored pencils

The short answer

Price first, rewards last

5% back cannot rescue a bad price. At 5% back, a $200 purchase earns $10. If the same item was $170 three weeks earlier, the rewards recovered a third of what the timing cost. Settle the price, then let the card do its small, reliable job.

The proportions

How small the rewards term actually is

The math

Item price on sale day
$200
Prime Visa rate at Amazon
5%
Rewards earned
$10
Price on a better day
$170
  1. Rewards on the sale-day price = $200 x 0.05 = $10
  2. Rewards on the better price = $170 x 0.05 = $8.50
  3. Buying at the better price costs you $1.50 of rewards
  4. Buying at the better price saves you $30 of price

A better price beats the rewards on a worse price by 20 to 1 in this example. The rate is a rounding error against the price.

This is why every page in this section puts price first. The card is worth having and the 5% is real, but it is the last five percent of the decision. Anyone telling you to buy because of the cash back has the proportions backwards.

Source: Chase — Prime Visa · verified 2026-08-11

Reading the page

What Amazon's struck-through price does and does not mean

When we read Amazon’s own deal-event page for this guide, one thing stood out about the deal tiles: Amazon's own deal tiles label the struck-through comparison price two different ways — "List:" on some items and "Typical:" on others (Amazon — Black Friday page, verified 2026-09-15).

Those two labels are not the same claim. One is a reference price supplied for the product; the other is a statement about what the item has recently been selling for. Amazon uses whichever it has for a given item, which means the struck-through number on two adjacent tiles can mean two different things.

None of that is a scandal. It is simply a reason not to treat a percentage next to a strike-through as the answer to “is this cheap?” The number that answers that question is the item’s own price over time.

Source: Amazon — Black Friday page · verified 2026-09-15

The check

A three-minute price check that beats a countdown timer

What each signal tells you, and what it does not.
SignalWhat it tells youWhat it does not tell you
Struck-through reference priceThere is a higher number Amazon is comparing againstWhether the item has ever sold at that higher number recently
Percentage-off badgeThe arithmetic between those two numbersAnything at all about the item's own history
Price history chartWhat the item has actually cost over monthsWhat it will cost next week
A price alert you set in advanceThat your number was hit, without you watchingWhether the item is still in stock at that price

The third and fourth rows are the ones worth adding to your setup, and they are free. Keepa is the best-known of the browser extensions in this category; its published description is that it adds price history charts and the option to be alerted on price drops to all supported Amazon sites (Keepa — Chrome Web Store, verified 2026-09-06). We are naming it because it is verifiable, not because we have a relationship with it — this site is paid by Amazon signups and nothing else, which is set out in full on our affiliate disclosure.

The practical routine takes about three minutes per item and runs before the event, not during it. Pick the items you actually intend to buy. Look at each one’s price over the last six to twelve months. Write down the number you would be happy to pay. Set an alert at that number. Then, when the event arrives, you are checking a list rather than making decisions under a countdown.

Source: Keepa — Chrome Web Store · verified 2026-09-06

Where rewards belong

The one case where the card changes the answer

There is a narrow case where the rate genuinely tips a decision: when the same item is available at a similar price in two places, one of which is in the 5% category and one of which is not.

A $300 item at Amazon.com earns $15 at 5% back. The same item at a store where the card pays 1% back earns $3. That $12 gap is real, and it is worth knowing about when the prices are within a few dollars of each other. It is not worth chasing when they are not.

The exclusions decide whether you are in that case at all, and they are not obvious at checkout. Chase excludes not earned on purchases from merchants using Amazon Pay, on purchases at international Amazon retail sites, or on purchases made directly with travel suppliers including airlines, hotels, car rentals and cruises (Chase — Prime Visa, verified 2026-08-12). The full holiday translation of that list is on what actually earns 5% during holiday shopping.

Source: Chase — Prime Visa · verified 2026-08-11

#ad New cardmembers only, subject to approval. Chase's rates and exclusions change without notice, so check the current terms before applying. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy anything. We earn a flat fee if you sign up through this link, at no cost to you. How we’re paid.

Common questions

Common questions

Is 5% cash back worth more than a lower price?
Almost never. On a $200 item, 5% is $10. A price that is $30 better on a different day beats it three times over. Rewards are the smallest term in the equation and should be the last thing you optimize.
What does 'List price' mean on Amazon?
It is a reference price shown struck through next to the current price. Amazon labels its comparison prices in more than one way, using List on some items and Typical on others, so the strike-through is a starting point for a check rather than proof of a discount.
How do you check whether an Amazon Black Friday deal is real?
Compare the current price against the item's own price history rather than against the struck-through reference price. Free browser tools add price history charts and price-drop alerts to Amazon product pages.
Should you wait for a better price or buy and earn the rewards?
Work out the two numbers. The rewards are the price multiplied by your card rate. The saving from waiting is whatever the price falls by. If the second number could plausibly exceed the first, the rewards should not decide it.
Do price-tracking tools work with Amazon rewards?
They are independent of each other. A tracker tells you what to pay; the card decides what you earn on what you pay. Neither affects the other, which is exactly why they should be evaluated separately.

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Written by Stephen V. — An enthusiast who's genuinely into this. I read the terms, compile the published rates, and do the math. No lab coat, no credentials, no test lab.

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Last verified: 2026-09-06